The 2010 International Consumer Electronics Show (CES) is predominantly about new products, of course, but it is also a conference, with some interesting panel discussions.
I attended the session, "GPS Navigation: What's Down the Road?" last Friday. Panelists were Kanwar Chadha, founder of SiRF Technologies; HP Jin, CEO of TeleNav; Roger Jollis, marketing director from Garmin; Pekka Pohjakallio, VP at Nokia; and Jocelyn Vigreux, President of TomTom. The session was moderated by Wilson Rothman of Gizmodo.
At first there was a recap of the map database business. There are three major database suppliers: Navteq, now owned by Nokia, and Tele Atlas, part of TomTom, are the big boys. And the third player, the new upstart bent on dominating every business sector it enters? Yup, that's Google.
The panel agreed that the Personal Navigation Device (PND) won't be going away soon, even in the face of the onslaught of mobile phone navi apps. The PND will complement your phone navi in the same way that you own a digital camera even if your phone has camera capability. That's because the do-it-all phone doesn't do anything exceptionally well, just acceptably well.
And penetration of PND in the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China) is low, so there's room for growth there.
The best prognostications from the panel, including mobile phone navi, are after the jump.
Still, life must be difficult for PND makers such as Garmin, which has gotten out of the database and software business and can no longer rely on such revenue. PND sales have tanked after a spectacular debut, and during the last Black Friday sales, PNDs were available for less than $100, surely at a razor-thin margin for manufacturers.
However, the future looks good for factory-installed navi systems as they filter down to lower-priced vehicles. The panel cited Renault's "Navigation for All" program as an example of this.
With regard to the current mobile phone navi, the panel agreed that most of it is bad -- but that's OK because it's free. And it's OK until you get lost -- then you'll pay for a decent product.
Creating a good map database is difficult and expensive. According to Nokia's Pohjakallio, they must use "a brute force method which forces us to send out many cars to check the roads." This is unsustainable if you give it away for free.
The panel agreed that in the future, everyone will have navigation, whether that's in the car, on the phone or via PND. But GPS won't primarily be used for navigation.
The panel predicted that the GPS (Global Positioning System) will instead be used for location-based services, and primarily social networking. Perhaps navigation will be only your third application priority.
Adding current location to social networking will be huge. SiRF's Chadha noted that there is a generation gap with regard to privacy: kids today just don't care about it.
TeleNav's Jin predicted that knowing where you, the people around you, and your friends are will define your mobile Internet.
And the key difference between mobile Internet and just Internet?
Location.
Albert Austria, Senior Engineer, Edmunds, Inc.
CaptainChaos says:
11:41 AM, 01/13/10
I've owned a number of GPS devices, primarily "PNDs", however more recently I acquired a modern phone with GPS capabilities. While things like battery life, durability, accuracy and sensitivity are typically better in PNDs, you really cannot beat having a location, web and user-aware mobile device with GPS capabilities. Obviously these are of little value when all you have is a GPS signal, but when in range of a cellular and/or data connection, the Microsoft Flight Simulator-esque image above is laughable compared to a device that integrates real-time traffic data, satellite maps, your contacts and location-aware data.
Sure, having a ruggedized device with great accuracy and days or weeks of battery life is useful in the jungles of the Amazon, but what most consumers care about is how a device functions in a modern, metropolitan jungle.
SnakeDoctor says:
12:37 PM, 01/13/10
chaos -
Yes, it's true: our phone will increasingly become the center of our lives.
Regards,
Albert
estreka says:
02:30 PM, 01/13/10
Let me ask you this:
If you have a phone with GPS, would you pay $2000 for a navi? Would you pay $100 for a TomTom?
I just can't see myself needing the duplicity.
SnakeDoctor says:
02:55 PM, 01/13/10
estreka -
As the panel said: free is fine 'til it doesn't work. Then you pay.
I guess that could apply to a lot of different products.
Of course, Nokia would like your world to be your phone.
And for most of us, it already is.
Regards,
Albert
blueguydotcom says:
10:38 PM, 01/14/10
In-dash navi needs to drop in price drastically. It offers very little for the outrageous pricing.