The Mechanic's Fearless Forecast for 2010

Lets see now.

10.- I agree. Large porky, ugly hatchbacks with little interior space are stupid. They will die. However small hatch backs will rule.

9. - The Volt will fail because while it might work it will not work $30K or $40K good.

8. - Neither know or care.

7.- Hard to say. I think Fisker is a scam and Tesla is a toy but electric cars will be big in the future. The money is going to a better cause then bailing out banks.

6.- Agreed

5.- Agreed.

4.- Don't know or care

3.- Agreed. All the young people I know who like cars drive Subarus (or Mazdas). People who buy cars because it's red and an automatic buy Hondas now. Things have changed so much since the 90's.

2.- Agreed. Mercury could have been so cool by using it's history to give Ford a non-mainstream image brand. Instead, just like GM with Pontiac, they let it die with a second rate badge engineered cars. Mercury should have been the cool brand and Ford the family brand. Instead it's the "what is that your driving?" brand.

1.- You might be right here but I'm not sure. The Koreans have made enormous gains but it is much easy to improve when you're really, really bad then it it is when you really good. The big question is how will they handle their new found crediblity and status? Will they continue to improve or plateau and just be a volume builder of good cars?

Totally completely correct. I think the Comaro comment was harsh though... yes the hype will go away, but it will stay just as popular, if not more so than the Mustang. And why were there no comments about Nissan?

The mechanic says: "...no one but Lutz has the stature to even give [Chrysler] a solid run at succeeding."

This is they guy that thinks the Volt was the best thing GM could make in the hybrid class?

This is the guy that brought about the Plymouth prowler, the Sky and the Solstice? Sure the CTS is nice and the Camaro sold well for a while but...he has an auto philosophy much different than the Fiat group? Lutz needs to retire.

Moparbad forecast for 2010-

The Mechanic's contributions reach the end of the line. His credibility threw a rod long ago.

My only hope is that 2010 willl bring an end to the Nazi-esque Eco-Green movement. I don't care about MPG. I don't care about foreign oil. I REALLY don't give a damn about CO2 emissions. I don't care about electric cars or hybrids (in fact I wish they would die an agonizing and cruel death). I don't care about polar bears. Or ice caps. Or salmon spawning grounds.

I want 550hp V10's with F1-sounding exhausts. I want Corvettes that catch fire while burning their tires for 200 yards. I want huge pickups and SUV's to once again populate our roads with no regrets. I want Al Gore to take a permanent vacation somewhere like Neptune. I want the "Global warming" summits to continue to be snowed out.

This is my hope for 2010. Its about as likely to happen as Al Gore's global warming doomsday, but thats what I'd like to see....

i say that by the end of 2010 or sometime in 2011, and according to the sales figures at the moment, and the way Chrysler is going down and taking Daimler with it, Mercedes will have to join another biggy company; the first thing that comes to mind is Volkswagen, but that would be a little odd what with the whole Audi thing. Then there's Toyota, but they have Lexus, and thats like putting a raged pit bull against...a raged pit bull; big no-no. Then there's Honda. Hmm? Acura may still be around somewhat, but nobody is going to buy one...Then the last thing left is Subaru. Sure, it might join Toyota, but that didn't stop Mercedes from joining with Chrysler. Or if the world really loses it, there's always Hyundai. Where will that leave BMW? Seeing that they don't exactly have beautiful sales figures, they, too, will have to join somebody. VW=Audi, but I can somehow see it work. Like putting two pit bulls in one house, but with lots of cages.

What have you done with The Mechanic that we all learned to hate?

Wherever the Old Mechanic is, keep him there. I prefer this one.

Amen brn. I like this column, and I can't argue with any of the points. Heck, I totally agree with them.

Did Toyota really think their trucks were going to catch on to the "GO BUCKS!" type anyways?

Hyundai will become the new Honda/Toyota....inexpensive to buy, extensive market for performance tuning, newly luxury line at a low price which competes with the best.

The electric car is the future. It makes sense for our government to invest into it. Nearly half of the military technologies we invest into don't profit immediately, but then five, ten, fifteen years later turn out to be clutch.

@lexusaddict really? what are you talking about? Didn't DiamlerChrysler (formed in 1997) split in to Diamler (Mercedes, Maybach, Smart) and Chrysler Corporation (Dodge, Chrysler, Jeep) a while back? This year Fiat bought the Chrysler Corporation, so if anyone was to go down it would be Fiat. Second, I believe that Diamlerbenz (pre 1997) bought Chrysler Corp. for cash flows, then after it emptied them, dumped them. Mercedes does not need to be buying any Japanese Auto manufacturer, and why does it have to be Japanese and not Korean??? (not that it is going to happen or anything) On the topic at hand, I agree with all of the predictions, how is the grand marquis and Lincoln town-car still on the market anyway?

10 - Seriously how many X6 does BMW sell a year? The recession took a hit on ALL automakers this year and will continue to do so for the next year or two. Car and Driver says Acura expects 6,000 units for the ZDX. This segment is way too small to be profitable in my opinion.

9 - I honestly think the Volt will fail too because with or without tax credits it's still too expensive (both for GM and consumers). But I disagree on making this car a Cadillac because if GM took that path it would be marketing to a different audience. Besides making it a Chevy would provide it with a more mainstream image with a mainstream brand. Also, it's easier to convince people that Chevy is an eco-friendly brand than Cadillac. Which is also why Lexus will have a hard time explaining to people why they are paying 45k - 50k for a Toyota Camry hybrid with the HS 250h..

8 - That's a stretch....

7 - Electric car will remain a niche segment for at least another 20 years. What the government needs to do is set up a viable charging network for electric car and electric car companies need to advance the technology so that consumers doesn't give up too much in owning one. Neither has been or will be done in the next 10 years at least.

6 - And with the new V6 and V8 for the Mustang...are you kidding me? Camaro will never be as popular as the Mustang and will die a slow death if GM doesn't do enough to keep up with the competition.

5 - I think this depends on financial situation than anything else. Toyota didn't create a horrible truck. But the Tundra was released during the worse economical times, when sales of F-150 fell too. This second generation was probably the best so far of any full size trucks from Toyota. Besides Toyota spent way too much money for it to just cancel the model altogether.

4 - Don't really care about this....

3 - Probably the only one I agree 100% with. Honda cars suck. They're boring and longer has the charm it used to have. It's either Subaru or Mazda being the new Honda of the 90's. But my money is on Subaru.

2 - Honestly what the hell does Mercury sell that's even of value to anyone looking to buy a car? This should have happened 10 years ago.

1 - I agree with @firstwagon about this. It will be interesting to see whether and how Hyundai will continue its success. Only time will tell and one year is not enough. I hope they don't drop the ball like Toyota.

It was interesting to read but your reasoning seems too much of a stretch to reach to some of the conclusions that you came up with. However I do agree with a lot of it though.

10 - Seriously how many X6 does BMW sell a year? The recession took a hit on ALL automakers this year and will continue to do so for the next year or two. Car and Driver says Acura expects 6,000 units for the ZDX. This segment is way too small to be profitable in my opinion.

9 - I honestly think the Volt will fail too because with or without tax credits it's still too expensive (both for GM and consumers). But I disagree on making this car a Cadillac because if GM took that path it would be marketing to a different audience. Besides making it a Chevy would provide it with a more mainstream image with a mainstream brand. Also, it's easier to convince people that Chevy is an eco-friendly brand than Cadillac. Which is also why Lexus will have a hard time explaining to people why they are paying 45k - 50k for a Toyota Camry hybrid with the HS 250h..

8 - That's a stretch....

7 - Electric car will remain a niche segment for at least another 20 years. What the government needs to do is set up a viable charging network for electric car and electric car companies need to advance the technology so that consumers doesn't give up too much in owning one. Neither has been or will be done in the next 10 years at least.

6 - And with the new V6 and V8 for the Mustang...are you kidding me? Camaro will never be as popular as the Mustang and will die a slow death if GM doesn't do enough to keep up with the competition.

5 - I think this depends on financial situation than anything else. Toyota didn't create a horrible truck. But the Tundra was released during the worse economical times, when sales of F-150 fell too. This second generation was probably the best so far of any full size trucks from Toyota. Besides Toyota spent way too much money for it to just cancel the model altogether.

4 - Don't really care about this....

3 - Probably the only one I agree 100% with. Honda cars suck. They're boring and longer has the charm it used to have. It's either Subaru or Mazda being the new Honda of the 90's. But my money is on Subaru.

2 - Honestly what the hell does Mercury sell that's even of value to anyone looking to buy a car? This should have happened 10 years ago.

1 - I agree with @firstwagon about this. It will be interesting to see whether and how Hyundai will continue its success. Only time will tell and one year is not enough. I hope they don't drop the ball like Toyota.

It was interesting to read but your reasoning seems too much of a stretch to reach to some of the conclusions that you came up with. However I do agree with a lot of it though.

10. Agreed. These pseudohatchbacks aren't long for this world.
9. The Volt will fail, but not just because it's a Chevy. Even Caddy buyers want some sembiance of value.
8. I don't think so. I think Lutz is tired of Detroit and will be looking for an excuse to retire.
7. These loans should be going to companies that are developing batteries, not to the companies that claim they can use those batteries. Let the market speak.
6. The Camaro is indeed a fad. But I think it will be sustainable for another year. I'm not sure what their production numbers are, but they haven't kept up with demand yet.
5. If the Titan has survived thus far, I'm sure Toyota will keep the Tundra around. I do agree about the V8 Tacoma, though.
4. Mike is still formidable. I'd be surprised if he weren't competitive.
3. No way. Since Toyota bought Subaru, Subaru cars have become boring themselves. Expect Subaru to follow Honda.
2. Agreed. Mercury should have gone kaput long ago.
1. Hyundai will be the next Honda. They already are, really. Hyundai may not have the engineering expertise, but at least they have the kutzpah to be bold. That's worth way more than Honda's engineering prowess lately.

I think hatchbacks are a great option for those who want extra utility but not an SUV or wagon. There needs to be better styling: e.g. Insignia hatchback from Europe.

When the Volt comes to market, it may surprise people in more ways than one.

The Camaro will only survive if GM keeps up with competition... and figure out a way to trim some pounds.

When did Toyota buy Subaru??? They have a joint effort going on to build the coupe, but I don't recall anyone buying the other.

Mercury needs to be dumped... last pure example of true badge engineering, and people bash GM for what they do? At least the GM units don't share 99% of body panels.

Hyundai... yeah. It's about time for them, and hopefully they maintain what they have going in some form.

"3. No way. Since Toyota bought Subaru, Subaru cars have become boring themselves. Expect Subaru to follow Honda."

HUH?....

"When did Toyota buy Subaru???"

Toyota owns just under 17% of Subaru. That transfer of ownership took place almost two years ago.

@ majin_ssj_eric

I'm floored by your comment. Perhaps on a car enthusiast (dare I say fanatic?) website I shouldn't be. Nor do I count myself among the tree huggers as I drive a vehicle that rarely gets above 20mpg. But I *do* recognize how my actions result in changes to our one and only earth and that if everyone kept a calloused attitude we'd be SOL. I only drive 5000 miles a year and am looking for ways to reduce that even further. I have great hope that the efficiency of petroleum use will push cars to new heights, knowing that the car-loving public will demand performance regardless if it comes from gas guzzlers or other, new forms of propulsion. Perhaps facts such as 1) the military is now planning for a decrease in fresh water due to global warming & the ensuing violence that may come, 2) if the seas rise, some of Florida will be under water, 3) that there are no more "giant" oil reserves being found, and 4) the Canadian oil sands which used to be too expensive to separate harvest are now fertile grounds due to the price of petroleum may also be things that are uninteresting to you. They interest me ~ but then again it could all be propaganda.

Most, however, I'm glad that you and I are free to both have our own opinions. I know that the diversity of opinion make this discourse interesting - thanks for engaging. I'm glad that IL has a forum for both of us to interact. This freedom (to speak & to have whatever car we wish) is what our country is about.

Cheers,
Kevin

i agree with almost everything except

2. i think mercury has a future. look at buick. if we're going according to badge engineering and lack of fresh vehicles, buick should have been slaughtered. and besides, anyone recall that announcement ford made about mercury getting a "new small car" for 2010? i think they're killing off most of their cars to start fresh.

and im so glad someone said something about the camaro. everything said is 100% correct. its a show car and nothing more.

I'd be surprised if even 3 of 10 of these come true but kudos for going out on a limb with many (but not all) of these predictions. When I clicked on the article I expected to read mostly stuff everybody was already saying... but Lutz to Chrysler, Tundra being dropped, etc... those are things I've never heard before and yet now that you mention it they are possible.

10 - Hope you are right (p.s. Wouldn't call these hatchbacks really)
9 - About right
8 - Don't care
7 - Electric cars are doomed to failure.
6 - We'll See.
5 - Not gonna happen. Toyota thinks long term.
4 - I don't think he'll impress, but He won't do badly either, especially in a good car.
3 - Subaru's were fun to drive for a long time now.
2 - Don't care
1 - Maybe the next Honda. Toyota will make a come back. New president, back to basics on quality and reliability focus and sports cars on the way, we will see them on strong footing again. No doubt Hyundai will do well, but they depend on copying too much. Not only design (As various are guilty of) but of engineering as well (though their motors of late have impressed). They have depended on parts engineered by Toyota from suppliers to bring their quality up and their costs down. They won't be able to do that from the #1 spot. Every dog has his day, and perhaps they will make a run for top spot, but next year won't be it. Their brand name is still stained too.

Agreed, except:

8. Bob Lutz doesn't strike me as one to join a losing ship, particularly given his age. I think he's more apt to retire than join Chrysler.
...
5. The Tundra won't go away - it'll shrink along with the Tacoma. Toyota could easily pull a Nissan and put the Tacoma & Tundra on different sizes of the same platform. Shrinking both would get the Tacoma back to its 1980s small pickup roots (those don't really exist anymore) and the Tundra back to the "reasonably sized full-size truck" mantra that carried the 1st generation.
...
3. I think that's a bit premature, particularly since the Impreza ain't anybody's Civic...

A rational, sensible article with no political potshots from The Mechanic? Something is wrong here..

Thoughts:

10. They'll be a fad for those who want to stand out. Then people will realize how impractical they are. But let's not hope that real, practical hatchbacks catch on.

9. The Volt will succeed as a fleet vehicle (taxi, rental, govt/company cars) for the first couple years or so. It won't be a hit on the average driveway but I don't think Chevy ever expected it to be.

8. Lutz will retire before going back to Chrysler.

7. It's very hard being a small automotive startup these days. We'll continue to see delays from the likes of Fisker and Tesla. Some of them may just end up being bought up by established automakers and worked into their lineups.

6. The Camaro is no more a "fad" than the Mustang or Challenger, both of which it's outselling now. Sure, sales will drop, but it fills the same niche as the Mustang ('11 lineup at least) so no big reason why its success/fate should be any different. Lot of fan posing here.

5. It's probably more about cost to build than about demand. Maybe they'll just move production.

4. No opinion.

3. I don't see huge gains for Subaru.. maybe they're picking up some Honda customers, but the big news is that they're staying alive.

2. Ford has made it clear that Lincoln is the favorite of its step-children. The only new Mercury in the past few years was the Milan Hybrid, and the last unique Mercury was, what, the Cougar? And no new Mercury concepts for a while, very telling. If there's no new '11 Mountaineer to accompany the new Explorer, then they're done. For those comparing it to Buick - Buick is very successful in China, but Mercury does not exist outside of North America. Global success is now key to American success.

1. It's already clear that Hyundai/Kia have shaken up the auto market severely. They have the kind of gusto that Honda and Toyota had in the 80s. It'll be interesting to see how the Equus is received, and if it'll lead to a new luxury marque. Meanwhile, the smaller Japanese brands (e.g. Suzuki, Mitsubishi) have been hurting as a result, and I could actually see one or more of them exiting the North American market in the next year or two.

Many of the "predictions" are just basic common sense. Anyone with any knowledge of the automotive industry could pull them out of their posterior. But a few are not going to come to pass...not by a long shot.

Since Whitacre is a sort of wildcard in GM's plans, I can't predict how he'll play with Lutz. Whitacre has proven himself to be a good manager, and as such, can't be blind to the best things GM has going for it...among them, Lutz. Bob Lutz has been behind the few things of note from GM over the past 9 years and if Whitacre can't see that (and give Lutz continued freedom within GM), GM deserves to sink and Whitacre with it. In any case, I can't see Lutz returning to Chrysler. Chrysler's too long of a longshot for even Maximum Bob to take the risk.

Subaru's not going to gain another 50% of market share. With their recent positive move toward the mainstream (instead of entry-luxury) market, Subaru has some momentum. But when you've gained ground in a slipping market (like 2009), the percentages have to fall when the market begins to grow (like 2010). If Subaru gains 20% next year, they should throw a party. Heck, if they gain 10% market share, they should have a parade. This coming year is going to prove to be a tough one since EVERYONE will be competing hard for every sale.

And then there's the Tundra. Yes, the San Antonio plant has been woefully under utilized but then nobody predicted that the bottom would fall out of the market and full-sized trucks would lose so much ground. When the Tundra was introduced, the market for full-sized pickups was well over 2 million units in the US; there was no reason why Toyota shouldn't have expected to sell 150,000 Tundras (many of us doubted Toyota's 200k numbers from the beginning). So to sell 75,000 units isn't bad in the 2009 marketplace. Since the NUMMI plant is closing, Toyota wisely shifted production of the Tacoma to the modern San Antonio plant, but this doesn't mean the end of the Tundra is coming. I fully expect Toyota to keep the Tundra around and introduce a next-generation model in the next couple of years.

I think Toyota will "do whatever it takes" to keep the Tundra around. To yank it would be admitting a huge failure on their part, and I don't see that happening. No, I suspect they will massage the truck somewhat, to better fit the current and future market conditions. What I'd like to see them do is to beef it up somewhat, so that it becomes a 5/8-ton truck, sitting squarely in between the 1/2-ton and 3/4-ton market slots. It's certainly big enough; it just needs a heavier payload rating, somewhere around 2,300 pounds—for *all* models.

As to Subaru, I'm sure they'll continue to gain market share. They're on a roll now, and getting a lot of good press as well. That can only help them.

...Oh, and Toyota should bring over their new 4.5L V8 diesel that they put in the Australian Land Cruiser for the Tundra, Sequoia and the US-spec Land Cruiser!

I am glad that someone agrees with me about GM CEO lack of experience, these unwise decisions are getting quite popular these days.

"The current "interim" CEO at GM, Whitacre doesn't have a clue how to run a car company and owes all his allegiance to the government that has bailed GM out."

To the mechanic: You forgot GMC! Whitacre next target.

usually i dont really agree with the mechanic but this time i really do. especially on the ugly hatchbacks, and subaru becomes honda. i agree 200%. and i think the crosstour will die even before the tundra.

I could not agree you on the ugly hatchbacks more. We've seen them fashion in out back in early 90's (Ford Scorpio, Mazda 626 hatchback etc. though they might not have been sold in the U.S.), Just like back then, they will come and vanish soon...Hopefully, cause if that's what the cars are shaping up towards, God help us all :)

I just thought is was such a good comment I'd re-post it for @majin_ssj_eric
"
majin_ssj_eric says:

06:53 PM, 12/28/09

My only hope is that 2010 willl bring an end to the Nazi-esque Eco-Green movement. I don't care about MPG. I don't care about foreign oil. I REALLY don't give a damn about CO2 emissions. I don't care about electric cars or hybrids (in fact I wish they would die an agonizing and cruel death). I don't care about polar bears. Or ice caps. Or salmon spawning grounds.

I want 550hp V10's with F1-sounding exhausts. I want Corvettes that catch fire while burning their tires for 200 yards. I want huge pickups and SUV's to once again populate our roads with no regrets. I want Al Gore to take a permanent vacation somewhere like Neptune. I want the "Global warming" summits to continue to be snowed out.

This is my hope for 2010. Its about as likely to happen as Al Gore's global warming doomsday, but thats what I'd like to see....
"

Given the source, these predictions are frighteningly reasonable. Of course they're all incorrect:

10. If BMW dealers are offering massive discounts on the GT by late January, I'd eat my hat if I wore one. They're not offering massive discounts on the X6, which is to the GT what Judy Dench is to Megan Fox;

9. Wrong, wrong, wrong. Anyone who considers value in connection with the Volt needs to plug into reality. Were $15000 flat screens a good value? $2000 Blu Ray players?
$500 Pulsar digital watches (Mechanic, you'll remember those). The Volt is for early adopters. They pay through the nose for inferior Gen 1.0 versions on the cutting edge and never feel bad about it, because by the time the rough edges and high prices are gone, they've long since moved on. (Although you're right that this should have been a Caddy);

8. Old guys rule and all, but, um...no. And by the way, two points on the anti-Gov't sniping. Remember who flushed the world's largest corporation down the toilet? Wasn't the Gummint. And as to spending your tax dollars? Ain't gonna happen. Every cent spent on the auto bailout is borrowed. And there's no plan to pay it back with anything but more borrowed money. Not to worry, it worked for the housing industry. For years;

7. See point 9. I was down at Google in Mountain View recently and Tesla roadsters were as common as Camrys at WalMart. $100K for a two seater? You mean like the 911's the Tesla guys traded in?

6. This thing will tail off eventually, but not by mid-summer. It's just too cool looking in a cookie cutter car climate. The bright colors alone set it off from the ubiquitous monotones. Which is why it continues to massively out-sell the better driving Mustang;

5. No friggin' way. Too much loss of face;

4. Lance wins T d' F 2010 (you read it here first), and Michael's not really dead;

3. The Civic Si isn't all that engaging;

2. Mercury's demise is predicted annually. You may actually be right on this, but that takes some on the sting out of the wrong about everything theme;

1. The rise of the Koreans is inexplicable. They're not really any better or cheaper that anything else. Therefore, their downfall will be equally inexplicable. Why? Look up "inexplicable."

lexusaddict, I'm going to have to respectfully disagree with your points. First off, Daimler ditched just about all of Chrysler onto Fiat, so they no longer have to deal with that burden. There really isn't any conceivable way for Chrysler to take Daimler down with them. Mercedes isn't merging with anyone unless they repeat the Chrysler fiasco and take controlling interest of a company. Acura also isn't going anywhere either, at least not in the next few years. Yeah, their designs aren't my thing really, but they have a pretty loyal following since they are basically Hondas. And I have to ask why you're questioning BMW's health. While their sales were down this past year, and they might not be a powerhouse in the U.S. being that they're strictly luxury here, they are huge globally, and certainly not in financial straights. Think of it this way: if they can afford to put out weirdo stuff like the X6, they're doing just fine.

Lastly, why do so many people think that Subaru is owned by Toyota? Did I miss something? Last I checked, Fuji Heavy Industries still owned them, and the only relation they had with Toyota was a joint venture on a future car. I'm serious, am I going crazy?

majin_ssj_eric:

Sounds like you make money in the oil industry. A couple points to consider:

The U.S. has been importing considerably more oil from other countries (some unfriendly) year after year. That is unstable for the long run, as it is.

The U.S. has been PRODUCING much less oil the past five years. Check the DOE public documents. Either they are wrong or something's got to give...

What's the point of posting down here. Nobody will read it anyway. But in case anyone does...

Pointless lifestyle vehicles (platform variants) only exist to keep assembly lines busy...and try to sell to category buyers like "empty nesters". Even if they find a market temporarily, they just aren't going to sustain volume...

Small hatchbacks aren't going to take the market by storm in the U.S. but the Ford Fiesta is going to do really well. (Drove it at the LA auto show and it is just an astounding little car.)

Agree on the Camaro. Endlessly cool car but I wouldn't own one. The thing is a coffin; just completely unreasonable visibility out of it. The market for pony cars is still bound by some need for practicality. The Mustang will pull away just as it always has...by finding the right balance and being cool enough (and a little less expensive). Don't care what the numbers look like right now...just look up in a few months and the Mustang will be outselling the Camaro again.

I disagree that Toyota will drop the Tundra soon. It was a huge mistake and an act of hubris to try to crash the full size pickup market, but they're stuck with it now.

I hope Honda is the new Honda. Getting back to basics and doing cool engineering would be the way they'd get there. But it's been what, six years since the K-series came out? They've gone from conservative to stodgy to well, whatever is worse than stodgy.

regarding @majin_ssj_eric's comment:

Funny comment and I really hope you're just being sarcastic. But the sarcasm does bring a good point though. I think no matter how many more hybrids people buy (or willing to buy) there will always be enough demand for big engines with big power and big appetites for automakers to continue to make these cars. If Ford really cared about how green customers think they are then why even bother to release the Ford SVT Raptor for sale? They could have easily just kept that as a concept for the SEMA show or whatever. Yes @inlinesix's comment that U.S. does use a lot of oil and needs to stop importing so much. And yes CO2 emissions does more harm than good. But the truth is we don't know 100% if oil will run out in 20 or 200 years, if temperature rise to a point where the polar ice caps will melt, or if the world is ending as we know it. Like @yellowmiata said everyone is entitled their opinion. In my opinion everything that we use in terms of automobiles need to be more efficient. If people that want to buy the biggest V8 engine you can get then at least make that V8 the most clean and efficient V8 it can be. Technology shows us we can compromise. I mean who would have thought 10 or let alone 5 years ago that a V8 can get 20 mpg?

As for everyone's comment about Mercury including my own, I would understand why Ford still has kept it around. I mean somehow with whatever Mercury is selling and it can still win a J.D. Power Associates award on sales satisfaction....I mean seriously? Besides shutting down a brand is expensive. If Ford's plan is really making Mercury a premium small car brand then it better not fail. Otherwise, there's no point in keeping it around any longer. Also, GM keeping GMC may baffle car enthusiasts but the truth it it sells enough units to justify for it still being around. After all GM didn't think twice about dropping Pontiac and Saturn.

okay i will agree with a few things like mercury going bye bye and maybe the subaru thing to an extent. However, somehow i don't see how this guy can even be trusted to make predictions. i mean i find it interesting how this guy makes predictions about bob lutz going to chrysler but for some reason is unsure about whether or not chrysler will still be alive... you would think he would know that kind of stuff.

5. If Toyota made a smooth riding 4x4 version that was reliable, I'd switch from GM. Toyota has lost its way, from reliable & best in class to unreliable & no better than the competition. Until this is resolved, I might as well make the switch to the 2011 F250 Super Duty Diesel Lariat 4x4, as I drive 50k per year & need a 4WD made to go the long haul, 250,000 trouble free miles so long as I maintain it with Mobil 1 every 5k. Sad to see manufacturers heading the wrong direction on reliability after the improvements of the 90's. Toyota set the bar, but now is heading south.

Thanks for the update on the Z28. I hope you're right...

Well put The Mechanic! Here are my two cents in regards to your predictions:

10. I don't mind the looks of the BMW 5GT and X6, however the Crosstour and the ZDX rank high up there with the Aztek on the ugliness scale for sure. Most of these vehicles aren't even much more practical than their sedan counterparts. I hope this fad doesn't last too long either!

9. I'm sick of hearing about the Chevy Volt as well. GM is so notorious for creating so much hype on a future model that by the time it arrives (which usually ends up being years), the competition has outclassed it and it becomes stale.

8. Bob Lutz has been in the automobile industry for almost as long as cars have been on the road. I wouldn't be surprised if he goes over to Chrysler, and they could definitely use him, however he really should consider retiring given his age and the fact that he doesn't have much time left to do more than just work.

7. Agreed 100%

6. See #9

5. Toyota was good at making small/midsize trucks like the Tacoma, however they have never been able to make a full-size pickup that is good enough to compete with the Big 3. Now with their reputation beginning to tarnish, I don't see how they could successfully compete in the North American pickup market.

4. F1 isn't my forte, but given what you said and sports in general, I wouldn't be surprised with what you predict.

3. Subaru still has a ways to go in my opinion before they can become equivalent to Honda. They're off to a good start, but still not there yet.

2. They got rid of Mercury in Canada 10 years ago so it's about time that it happened in the US.

1. I don't know if they will truly dominate the market, but their market share will no doubt increase continuously if they maintain the path that they are on now.

1.) The Koreans have shown a level of aggressiveness that's rare among mainstream automakers but extremely fast growth has been proven to have severe consequences. Slow your role Hyundai/Kia.

2.) Mercury should have died in the early 80's.

3.) Although Subaru products have improved substantially I don't think the brand will be perceived as the next Honda as their overall business practices, philosophies and strategies are totally different. Sure, Subaru may produce more fun to drive cars but don't rule out Honda just yet as Ito seems to be able to revive that Honda magic of the 80's and 90's without higher powered sporty machines. Subaru, at least to me has become more of a mainstream brand just like every other manufacturer as their core products have become a bit more.... dare I say American.

Future Honda's will reignite that flame of the smaller, lighter, efficient, fun to drive cars they used to be a few years ago, mark my words! I think we will see sportier applications (unfortunately) just not in the way of S2000's, Prelude's or NSX's.

In regards to Acura, the MDX is still very competitive (it's MMC eliminated a few issues) and the RDX should improve quite a bit with the next generation. The sedan lineup is where Acura needs to really focus on as currently Acura has nothing desirable and the sedan lineup is a bit confusing as everything is about the same in size. Get it together Acura or die!

4.) I wish he would sit down somewhere, the cocky bastard! Everyone knows Aryton Senna is/was the best F1 driver!

5.) The Tundra won't die as Toyota built a dedicated factory to produce it and went over budget $400M! Toyota simply will adjust the Tundra's expected annual sales figures and utilize the plant to produce other models.

6.) Camaro sales will probably hit a wall but I don't think it will be as quick as the Mechanic suggests. However, the improved Mustang may have enough potency to steal away potential consumers.

7.) Not sure on this one as many consumers are actually interested in electric cars. I'll have to think on this subject more. Depends on demand and levels of interest.

8.) Lutz.....hmmmmm...... I don't think he's going anywhere anytime soon as I really think he has a pretty good amount of enthusiasm for GM. He may go away eventually but I think he wants to see GM really shine before he goes.

9.) As much press and attention this car has received it better be near perfect and be able to get ridiculous real world fuel efficiency numbers. The price will be this cars MAJOR hurdle.

10.) Ugly hatches...... I actually think both the BMW (X6) and Acura (ZDX) will hit their sales targets and the CrossTour seems to be doing OK as I know a few Honda sales reps who have sold them right off the truck. As far as hatches in general are concerned I really think the American auto offerings will slowly become more European like once the economy starts to recover and gas prices start to climb. I'm not suggesting every household will own or purchase a compact hatch or small car but I think we will see a lot more of those types of offerings from both mainstream and luxury manufacturers alike. I really believe people will start to be a bit more logical with their vehicle purchases.

Not Bad! A fairly decen t article!

10. Hatchbacks rule. But the Crostour thing, ZDX, V6, etc. are really terrible looking. I suspect they'll sell ok, but don't expect them to win any design awards! Ick... see what happens when you crossover a crossover? lol. I'd say the new resurgence in "station wagons" such as the Avants, Outback and Venza is a better idea...

9. The Volt is ok. I think it will go the way of the G8. Nice car, terrible marketing, and poor planning. It will have a terrible launch. No one will buy it until it's already discontuned. What the Volt needs is another spike in gasoline prices. THEN it will sell.

8 Lutz is nutz. And totally, completely awesome. He keeps GM in the news. He will never go back to Chrysler. He'd go pester Ford again or Europe before going to a sinking ship. But he'll stick around in GM for as long as they'll have him, I'm sure.

7. Fisker and Tesla are a joke. No one takes them seriously. Why are we giving them money? There's GOT to be a better way...

6. The Camaro is selling well?? Big suprise!! The Camaro lucked out with stable gas prices, a successful marketing blitz, good press, and super sweet sheet metal. Yeah, it might be a bit of a fad. But by the time it runs out of steam, GM will refresh it and keep it relevent. It's a brand new vehicle that we've been waiting for forever! Of course it's selling well. It'll plateau and slot just below the Mustang in sales, just like before. I would have predicted the death of the Charger and Challenger before this...

5. The Tundra is a very nice truck. Toytota in general needs a little bit of a reality check. They're suffering blow after blow recently. Thankfully they have a near perfect record that is only been scuffed. If they know what's good for them, they'll get back to focusing on good quality, maybe slightly boring, value priced mainstream vehicles. If they keep us their misteps much longer, there are many carmakers right behind them that are poised to take their place. The Tundra will never be able to touch the sales of the F-150. Don't even try to compare it. A better comparison is the Nissan Titan. And the Tundra kills the Nissan's sales easily. Toyota has some decent product coming up and some great engineers. I think they can turn it around.

4. Eh... Not really into that stuff. Wish him the best of luck though!

3. I love Subaru. Everyone does. Toyota needs to keep their $*%#& hands out of Subaru's business and let them be themselves. Toyota is the worst thing to ever happen to Subaru. Subarus are on the fast track to being boring and mainstream. Which is usually a good thing as far as sales are concerned. But in Subaru's case, staying just a little quirky is where they need to stay. Toyota would be smart to keep the passion in Subaru. My prediction: we will soon see the end of the lovable Subaru as we know it. And their sales will eventually suffer. Eventually, Subaru will just be like any other carmaker: boring, subdued, and losing buyers.

2. It's kinda sad to see Mercury go. They had a good run, but of all the recent dead brands, Mercury is perhaps the least relevent. Like everyone, I'm suprised they've lasted this long. I cared more about Saturn and Pontiac than Mercury. And for me, that's saying a lot.

1. Hyundai are the comebacks of this decade, maybe even the century. Even just a few short years ago, no one gave a rip about crappy little Hyundai and Kia. They were once laughed at. They were a joke! And now no one can believe their eyes! They still have a LOOOOONNNGGG way to go, but they are very much on the right track. Which is more than we can say about 90% of the automakers out there! I'd say that by 2015-17, Hyundai/Kia have a reputation similar to that of Honda. And that still blows my mind... I agree that they really need to slow it down a bit and focus on brand reputation. Take a second and smell the roses. They still have this connotation of being second rate. Or "good for the price" - a "poor man's (whatever)" And that's not good. Chrysler will soon inherit the place Hyundai/ Kia once held. Crazy...

"I give the Volt a strong 80 percent chance of being a technical success but only a 50/50 shot at being a commercial success."

Ooh, another bold prediction from the Mechanic!

When people say something's got a "50/50 shot", they're really not saying anything at all.

After reading comments from the editors of Edmunds for a while, I expect negetivity about the domestic manufacterers. It seems like it is a unwritten rule at Edmunds, to "dis" American brands, all the while give imports, especially Asian brands, a pass for faults. I for one, have had more problems with Japanese brands, than any American ones. My current vehicles are a Honda Pilot that has almost 20k miles on it. It has had two transmissions replaced as well as electrical problems and leaks fluids. My wifes Seinna has already had its share of recalls and now I have to worry about her gas pedal sticking and crashing into a wall and kiiling my children. I'm done with Imports and their fans (Edmunds.com and its paid off commentors).

As far as Chrysler is concerned? They are far from gone as Edmunds and the rest of the nay-sayer "McCain train" followers would like you to believe. Most Chryslers I have seen have out lasted many Honda's and Toyota's around where I live in New York. I hope the best for them. I for one will be trading in my Japanese brands for American ones as soon as I can dump the lease on both.

And the Tundra? it's got to be the biggest Joke from the start. Nissan and Toyota just don't get it.

Hyundai cars may be good but there's always something controversial about this company: firing union members, even going so far as getting involved in kidnapping a union leader in the 80s.

10. Hatchbacks are the way of the future --- just watch the movies!

9. The Volt will catch on in about 5 years when the technology catches up with (or brings down) the cost. But, by then, there will be other competition for the Volt, so it won't be that significant anyhow.

8. Bob Lutz.... who cares.

7. See #9. Oh, and I'll take $10 billion from Uncle Sam too.... give me a shot to build it.

6. THE CAMARO's IN TROUBLE!!! Especially when the Mustang's new engine is released! Why do you think the Camaro disappeared for 7 years in the first place??? Think about it...

5. Toyota gave only a modest sales goal of 200k per year. In this economy, to hit half that isn't bad. Besides, it's a great truck with Toyota's reputation for quality to back it up... it'll survive, if only in limited production numbers similar to the Gen-1 Tundra.

4. Schumacher... (who's that) who cares...

3. Subaru is an excellent company, but it's one of the big 3 of Japan... does it really matter in what order it falls? Honda makes HIGH QUALITY vehicles. Yes, they're boring! But, I think Honda's future will diverge more into Robotics & Aerospace, before it injects more excitement into their cars.

2. Good riddance to Mercury --- boring brand! Ford/Lincoln... why do you need the "gapper" of Mercury. Get rid of it & focus on the other 2.

1. Good for Hyundai/Kia. Show me another company that's changed a stereo-type/image of their complete vehicle line in such a short time... you can't! Now, let's see if the new cars hold up over time.

Very interesting. I think you have a good idea for 2010, BUT I think the camaro isn't a fad. It's actually a real good car that people have to give credit.