The feeling here is that there's no future for the traditional truck-based midsize SUV; that they will disappear in a few years, and that they all will be replaced by car-based SUVs. Fullsize SUVs, on the other hand, will remain, as there is a legitimate need for these types of vehicles.
Snippet: David Healy, an analyst for Burnham Securities, predicted that the mid-sized SUV â vehicles such as the Ford Explorer, Chevrolet TrailBlazer and Toyota 4-Runner â will be gone in a few years.
"There's no excuse in the world anymore for having a truck-based SUV, and the segment is going to go to zero," Healy said...
If by car-based SUVs they include vehicles such as the VW Touaregâwhich is extremely capable at doing traditional SUV-like chores (towing & off-roading), then I'm all for it. If not, then I think it will be a sad day indeed...
Frankly, I think Automotive Darwinism will take place. The market will be too small to support all of what's currently available. Therefore the bad, marginal, so-so, and me-too truck-based midsizers will likely die off; but several of the good ones will survive, as there will always be a need for a few of these vehicles. I also think those that have good(!) clean diesels (Nissan & Toyota) to offer will be the ones that will have the best chance of surviving.
Finally, I see the ones that do survive as becoming even more specializedâif anything, even more rugged. The success of the FJ Cruiser and Xterra are a good examples of this. I see more of that type, as there are a lot of people who live in Idaho, Montana, Colorado and other remote parts of this country who do indeed need rugged midsized truly capable SUVs. These will become the modern-day Willys station wagon.
Frankly, I think Automotive Darwinism will take place. The market will be too small to support all of what's currently available. Therefore the bad, marginal, so-so, and me-too truck-based midsizers will likely die off; but several of the good ones will survive, as there will always be a need for a few of these vehicles. I also think those that have good(!) clean diesels (Nissan & Toyota) to offer will be the ones that will have the best chance of surviving.
Finally, I see the ones that do survive as becoming even more specializedâif anything, even more rugged. The success of the FJ Cruiser and Xterra are a good examples of this. I see more of that type, as there are a lot of people who live in Idaho, Montana, Colorado and other remote parts of this country who do indeed need rugged midsized truly capable SUVs. These will become the modern-day Willys station wagon.
steve_ says:
11:27 AM, 09/14/06
Careful Bob - you'll have the SUV Owners of America picketing your blog. :-)
Around Boise, it usually feels like I'm surrounded more by big honking pickups than mid or full size SUVs. Often the pickups are towing horse trailers or construction/landscaping trailers so maybe that's why I notice them more.
Most of the SUVs seem to be performing minivan or sedan roles, but it's hard to tell what uses people are putting them to when you just see them idling next to you at the stop light. Lots of people do like the higher seating heights that the SUVs offer, even if the utility really isn't that great in some of them.
rsholland says:
11:39 AM, 09/14/06
I'm not advocating that mid-size SUVs die off. I do see them as evolving though.
kurtamaxxxguy says:
04:44 PM, 09/14/06
Perhaps we should wait and see first what falling gas prices do to sales of these vehicles?
If sales go back up once gas prices get to $2.50 and below, we will know what is really driving things there.
carlisimo says:
11:59 PM, 09/14/06
It'll never really die - the pick-up certainly isn't dying and full-blown SUVs are basically the same thing.
But it isn't trendy anymore. Once something becomes socially unacceptable (or acceptable) with the progessive crowd... it does tend to spread. Look at smoking. With enough bashing and years of being a lot more expensive than before, it's nearly gone. Just a twinge of guilt here, a hint of safety issues there, a resurgence in stylish cars and CUVs... and the crowd moves on.
Basically they're old hat; big boxes once made you stand out, now they're what normal boring people drive.
ateixeira says:
09:05 AM, 09/15/06
No way is the SUV dead. The article is grossly overstating the shift to crossovers.
Explorer is still the best selling SUV or crossover. And a lot of crossovers sell poorly. So the classification alone is certainly not a measure of success.
We will see a continued shift to car-based crossovers, sure, but the SUV will never die.
don35 says:
04:14 PM, 09/16/06
Who the heal is Helly? Of course the truck-based SUV is not dead! Outdoorsmen (and women) who travel to remote areas in all kinds of weather and terrain would tear the bottom out of Soccer mom's crossover on their first trip. One of the leading 4 WD magazines will not even test a new 4WD for their 4WD of the Year award unless the tester can crawl under the vehicle. This mag is also contemplatng testig onlly 4WD's that have a two or more speed transfer case. Long live the FJ Cruiser and Xterra!!!